The transition to net zero emissions by 2050 requires substantial efforts from European governments, which is expected to have an enormous impact on the public finances. Without appropriate assessment, the transition could further pose significant fiscal risks.
Output gaps continue to play a major role among Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) for assessing the appropriate fiscal stance, underlying or structural deficits and when monitoring fiscal rules. IFIs should therefore expand and improve upon existing models, testing different approaches and incorporating them into the analysis of potential output and the output gap.
This paper takes stock of the emerging public finance landscape in the (post-)crisis environment. It explores 10-year scenarios for economic growth and public finances in several EU countries, and discusses their implications for fiscal sustainability
This paper will assess the characteristics and pre-conditions of the effective medium-term frameworks in the EU, drawing from national experiences. This contribution is particularly relevant in the context of the Recovery and Resilience Facility since its implementation is expected to result in a significant increase in investment projects over the next three years
The role of the Independent Fiscal Institutions in assessing the sustainability of high public debt in the post-Covid era
Weakened growth along with automatic stabilisers and additional fiscal stimulus are leading to higher public debt levels as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Paper on Potential Output and the Output Gap estimates
The Network of EU Independent Fiscal Institutions (EU IFIs) endorsed this Report at its meeting held in Rome on the 4th of May 2018.