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Assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the updated of stability programme 2021-2024

Assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the updated of stability programme 2021-2024
The Malta Fiscal Advisory Council (MFAC) has endorsed the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the Ministry for Finance and Employment on which the Update of Stability Programme is based for 2021-2024. 

In 2021 real GDP is forecast to grow by 3.8%, reversing part of the 7.0% downturn experienced in 2020. Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 6.8% in 2022, and remain elevated thereafter, respectively 4.5% in 2023, and 4.0% in 2024. All GDP components are expected to grow in 2021, with investment anticipated to expand fastest, up by 9.2% on a year earlier.
 
These projected growth rates, together with those for the outer years, depict a scenario where real GDP and all its components would attain a level above that recorded in 2019 (pre-pandemic) by the end of the forecast horizon. As well, the small rise in the unemployment rate, which was recorded in 2020, is expected to be practically slowly reversed by 2024. In turn, the low yearly inflation pattern is expected to persist throughout the four-year forecast horizon

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