The report explores three scenarios, developing projections to 2025 (extending the official projections, which only go to 2021):
(1) A “Mild” scenario where conditions improve rapidly, with lasting damage minimised.
(2) A “Central” scenario, building on official forecasts, where confinement measures ease as planned but with lasting impacts.
(3) A “Severe” scenario with repeat lockdowns and wider financial distress.
The scenarios imply it would take 2 to 3½ years to return to pre-crisis levels of activity. This depends on health outcomes. By contrast, the Irish economy took 11 years to recover after the financial crisis.
Equally, there are several strategies in terms of the fiscal stance that the government might adopt:
(1) A “business as usual” strategy where the budget evolves in line with maintaining existing policies;
(2) An “accelerate debt reduction” strategy that sees the government target a similar pace of debt reduction to before by 2025;
(3) A “stimulus and accelerate debt reduction” strategy that has a stimulus of the order of 5 per cent of output before debt reduction is targeted.
You can read the report here